How To Find Value Bets

Value bet, value bet, but how to find it? Like you know to identify value bet is essential ability for long-term success. In this article we will focus how to develop this ability.

Sports Betting Value bet

One of the hardest thing is to explain people that betting on underdog can bring very interesting opportunity. Loads of bettors just betting favorite, and that’s it. But you need to understand that you are not betting on particular team or player you are betting on odds. So very important is to understand to odds vs probability of chance of winning. If you think, that odds are too high, then you have your value bet, and you must bet it, does not matter if it is underdog or favorite.

Successful better is person who can recognize these value bets, and can bet on it proper amount from his betting bankroll.

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How To Calculate Value Bets

What is a sport betting value bet? A value bet is simply a bet where the likelihood of a given outcome is higher than what offer odds. For example when you are tossing a coin, there is a 50% chance that it will land on heads. Let’s say that bookmaker is offering odds of 2.10 for the coin to land on heads. This is a value bet. And you should immediately bet, why?

Value = (Probability * Decimal Odds) – 1

If the value is greater than 0, then we have found a value bet.

So in our example, do we have a value bet?

Value = (0.50 * 2.10) – 1

Value = 1.05 – 1

Value = 0.05

So betting on the coin to land on heads at odds of 2.10 is a value bet. But with tossing of coin it is easy, because you know probability for outcome, it is just easy 50:50. And in sport betting it is your personal estimation based on loads of factors. And that’s your main goal: to estimate the probability of given outcome better then bookmaker.

Here are few hints how to improve your skill of finding value bets.

Specialization

First you should start finding value by focusing on leagues you know well, then you should be able to apply your new skill to other leagues and tournaments.

Understand Probabilities

You don’t need to be a mathematical genius to find value bets. But what you need to understand probability.

Betting odds represent the probability of a particular outcome occurring. This is known as their ‘implied probability’ and is calculated as:

Implied Probability = 1 / decimal odds.

So if we use our coin toss example, the implied probability for the odds of 2.10, is:

Implied Probability = 1 / 2.10

Implied Probability = 47.62%

So odds 2,1 offering chance of landing heads 47.62%. But we estimate (well, in this example, we know) that the probability for a coin landing heads is 50%.  So now we have value bet, because the chances of the coin landing on heads is greater than the probability reflected in the odds on offer.

Set Your Own Odds

Try this great exercise. Look at the upcoming fixtures in the league you bet, and try to make your own odds without looking on bookmakers odds. This you need to do regularly, soon you will start have a good sense of estimating of odds. You are constantly checking with real outcomes, and see your progress. Then you are comparing with bookmakers and picking up your value bets.

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Review Your Results

This one is very important. You need to review your results, tell yourself why you made a bet, and compare it with outcome. What did you do right? What did you do wrong? You need to learn from it, that’s why you are doing it.

Don’t give up

Like developing any kind of skill or talent, developing your ability to find value bets takes time.. Knowledge is power and the greatest knowledge comes through experience. Let´s go with our top bookies.

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